The ruling CPI(M)-led LDF in Kerala is set for a sweeping victory in the local body polls, while the Bharatiya Janata Party appears to have made some satisfactory gains in Kerala. The Left Democratic Front is leading in more than 500 of the 941 Gram panchayats, five of the six city corporations, and 11 of the 14 district panchayats. The LDF is currently marching ahead in 514 gram panchayats, UDF at 375, and NDA at a meagre 23.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said that the primary opposition of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has become insignificant in the state, while the BJP has suffered a humiliating defeat as the people of Kerala has “rejected communal forces” ahead of the assembly elections in April-May 2021. The UDF looks set for the second spot. The Kerala local body polls were held in three phases. The first phase saw a turnout of 73.12 percent, while the second phase saw 76.78 percent, and the third and final phase saw 78.64 percent turnout. A total of 21,893 wards in 1,200 local self-governing bodies, including six corporations, 941 village panchayats, 14 district panchayats and 87 municipalities went to the polls on December 8, 10, and 14.

Despite a series of corruption charges and an intense campaign against its government and leaders, Kerala’s ruling CPI-M-led LDF appears to be retaining its dominance in the local bodies as the results started pouring in on Wednesday morning. Just before noon, the LDF was ahead of the Congress-led UDF in Gram Panchayats and blocks, while the latter had an edge in the municipal bodies. In the six corporations, both the UDF and the LDF were in a neck and neck race, with LDF leading in four and UDF in two.

The BJP-led NDA seemed to be making considerable gains in the Thiruvananthapuram and Palakkad districts. However, the LDF was ahead in Thiruvananthapuram, dashing the hopes of the BJP of winning the corporation in the capital.

Overall, the outcomes of the elections so far indicate that despite BJP’s desperate attempts to expand its base in Kerala, its hope of electoral mileage and gain has been decimated by the local body polls.

The outcome so far has given reason for the CPI-M to cheer, as it indicates that the controversies and scandals its government was embroiled in have not had a strong adverse impact on its electoral support base. The LDF had faced a rout in the Lok Sabha elections held in 2019.

Although the local body election comes ahead of the state Assembly election, scheduled for early 2021, and is sometimes referred to as a mini Assembly poll, the voting patterns in the Assembly, Lok Sabha, and local bodies have been different in the state.

However, if the trends continue and the LDF retains its strongholds and edge in panchayats and blocks, it would be a major morale boost for the ruling coalition. The LDF’s recent move to get Kerala Congress (Mani) into its coalition, breaking it off the UDF camp, appeared to have yieled results, as the LDF could make fresh gains in districts like Kottayam and Pathanamthitta. The LDF has also inducted the Loktantrik  Janata Dal (LJD) into the coalition.

The emergence of smaller groups in the urban areas, like the Thiruvananthapuram Vikasana Munnettam (TVM), V4Kochi, and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) seemed to have eaten into the UDF votes, whereas the LDF has managed to retain its support base in corporations like Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram.

While the results could instill confidence in the LDF, Congress’s failure in retaining some of its bastions, including in Alappuzha, the home constituency of K C Venugopal, general secretary, organization, could intensify the factional feud in the state unit of the party, with leaders indulging in a blame game. The political impact created by the Supreme Court verdict on the entry of women into Sabarimala has been proven to be having an effect even now.

While the LDF was pushed to third place in Chengannur, the BJP gained in Pandalam. Pandalam and Chengannur were the epicentres of the protests against the Sabarimala verdict.