From 2005 to 2013, Nitish Kumar was symbolic of the union between BJP and Janata dal (united). From 2015 onwards he was at the helm in the state level centre of power at Patna with the association of RJD of L.P. Yadav. These political associations have made his name synonymous with the politics of Joran-jaman. In 2017, Nitish kumar made a tactical exit based on corruption charges on the then deputy CM, Tejashwi Yadav of RJD. The then Bihar BJP chief Sushil Modi extended support  for the JD(U) under Nitish Kumar with J P Nadda stating that mid-term polls was not an option for Bihar. That allowed for the introduction of BJP in the ruling alliance and a surgical removal of RJD from the ruling equation.

Before weighing in the options of the various parties in Bihar, it is important to understand the importance of the caste arithmetic in Bihar state politics. NDA with BJP as the major constituent party till now had its focus on the representation of the upper castes, the Dusadh dalits and non-Yadav OBCs. In doing so, they have generally avoided giving the state’s Muslims and to some extent the Yadavs their due share in Bihar polity. Among the upper castes, NDA had chosen a higher rajput to bhumihar ratio in giving tickets to the candidates. On the other side of the electoral equation in the state assembly is the alliance under UPA which has a higher Muslim and Yadav proportion of allotment of tickets. It is understood that this combination of Yadavs and Muslims comes at a cost of non Yadav OBCs and higher castes which are preferred by NDA under BJP. RJD which has always been in opposition to the NDA has blamed the BJP for giving away pie from the share of benefits of reservation for OBC by bringing in the logic of reservation for the economically weaker sections among the higher castes. It is interesting to understand that this line of thought in the RJD party had been inculcated by presence of socialist leaders like Shivananda Tiwari who had been shifted to JD(U) and back into RJD. Tiwari’s return into RJD indicates that to some extent JD(U) is being guided by the same understanding of caste as BJP.

Prior to the 2019 national polls, RJD had become so flustered by their non-gains that they went on to declare Kanhaiya Kumar, CPI candidate from Begusarai as a Bhumihar. It is interesting to note that the constituency of Begusarai, considered as the Leningrad of Bihar saw the electoral fight in 2019 between Kanhaiya Kumar and Giriraj Singh, two persons from Bhumihar caste background. At first Giriraj singh was unwilling to run for elections from that seat, probably due to the then rising popularity of Kanhaiya Kumar, but he was persuaded by Amit Shah.  This case specifically underlines the importance for caste in any particular electoral seat. Though Giriraj Singh finally won the seat of Begusarai, he would not have been the first Bhumihar. Bhola Singh also a Bhumihar won the seat in 2014. The numerous caste identities and the multiple fault lines had probably forced the hands of BJP to rope into an alliance with the JD(U). Nitish Kumar and as a result JD(U) has a wide support base among the MBCs- the most backward castes in Bihar.

In between all this conundrum of caste politics, there is a case of opportunism. Lok Jansakti party formed in 2000 after its split from JD(U) is headed by Ram Vilas Paswan. This party claims a wide support base among the dalits in Bihar. LJP under Ram Vilas Paswan had entered into alliances with both UPA and NDA in various times. This is symbolic of opportunism on the part of LJP. Citing this, the minister of state health and family welfare Ashwini Kumar Choubey prior to the 2014 elections had suggested against including the support of LJP under RV Paswan. LJP presents its association with multiple regimes at the centre not as absence of any ideology as pointed by its detractors, but as an achievement. This year on 5^th July, on the occasion of Paswan’s 74^th birthday, his son had presented a video which showed RV Paswan’s associations with six prime ministers beginning from V.P. Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda, and from I.K. Gujral and Atal Bihari Vajpayee till Narendra Modi. Some observers also commented that LJP represents a specific micro-political brand of family politics which harps on the sentiments of the dalits, MBCs and SCs in Bihar.  L.P. Yadav had described Paswan as a weather scientist who can predict the political winds and decide his course of action. One the other hand, Yadav’s son Tejashwi had seconded the thought of Paswan’s son, Chirag of postponing the Bihar polls after the Covid19 crisis. This shows that the tactics of this party are actually successful in garnering alliances. Obviously, how the frequently changing of political alliances pan out for LJP in the coming state poll and 2024 national poll; that yet remains to be seen.

In the overall equation between the NDA with JD(U) on one side and UPA with RJD on the hand, many have rightly pointed out that disproportionately large favours to the Yadav have led to overall loss of public appeal for the UPA.

In recent days, the nation saw the debacle on the national economic front and the mismanagement of the migrant workers in the aftermath of an unplanned lockdown. This has resulted in an accumulation of subsurface seething anger against the BJP and the JD(U) which is seen as an ally of the current regime at the centre. One needs to assess the current situation in places like Allahabad, and in pockets of Bengal and Jharkhand, places with significant chunks of migrant population of Bhumihars from Bihar. This group of people have had traditionally voted for BJP for close to 3 decades and recently to the chagrin of BJP,  there has been a shift in the political preferences of the voters from Bihar. Many of such bhumihars are fuming at ongoing political killings of prominent faces of their category of people even after so many years since the 1992 Bara village killings and the 18^th March 1999 Senari massacre. Their relation with the BJP JD(U) is further complicated by how the centre dealt with the migrant worker crisis at the outset of the Covid induced lockdown. Numerous of dalits and migrant bhumihars who were affected by the lockdown are now waiting for their chance at the ballot to send the BJP-JD(U) alliance packing their bags from power. This might be another reason why the LJP under Paswan has not yet aligned itself with BJP and JD(U).

How BJP might be looking at this situation? It might be for this very reason that suddenly out of the blue a B-town celebrity with right wing opinion is coming ahead to placate the hurt sentiments of people of Bihar by diverting the attention towards SSR issue. One must also not forget that the celebrity who is vehemently pushing ahead the SSR issue with Y-category security protection in the eyes of people of Bihar, herself belongs to higher caste. Since there is certainly a dearth of issues for the parties, the SSR issue has become a milking cow for them. Otherwise how can serving justice to SSR ensure that a graduate from Bihar has some work on his/her hands right out of college? How can SSR issue ensure that there are well built roads to facilitate trade? These questions cannot be answered even by using the ‘strange attractors’ concept of Chaos theory.

Two things should be understood in summary; first that victory of JD(U) means victory of BJP and that upcoming Bihar polls can be a testing ground for not only the JD(U), but also BJP.