Pinarayi Vijayan- the Chief Minister of Kerala on Thursday warned the state of an expected rise in the growth rate of positivity for Covid-19. He said that he has been notified by the experts that the cases will rise sharply by the next month. It is advised not to lift the limitations of social distancing and lockdown at this point.

He said that the state’s purposeful surveillance has helped control the fatality rate in the past few months. However, this does not mean that the restrictions can now be lifted as the threat is still existing. “Some studies have pointed out that Covid-19 cases will peak by October. We should not let our guard down citing drop in daily cases. The reduced number is due to the lesser number of tests. Onam festivities led to a dip in tests.”- the CM said.

As warned by the experts, the state had expected the daily cases to go up to 10,000 in the last month. Although, the people were able to manage the situation and control the spread of the virus bringing down the number of daily cases. He added “Test positivity rate is above 8 now. We have to bring it down to 5. At least 50 percent of the total cases came up in last month. Though we managed to contain a massive spread, the threat remains.”

The Moving Growth Rate (MGR) for positivity in the state is said to be twice  the national average, according to some of the independent experts. The 30-day MGR for the state is 122%, however, the national average in August was about 64%.

There has been extensive criticism from people and ministers that many deaths have not been mentioned in the official list by the state government, to reflect a low fatality rate in the state. Experts suggest that the actual death toll might be more than double the official number of deaths as given by the government. At present, 316 Covid-19 deaths have been recorded by the government of Kerala.

This increment in the numbers is said to be a result of elevated testing rates which were 10,000-15,000 tests daily till July, and now have gone up to 50,000 per day.

As of this day, total positive cases in the state are 79,568 with 1,153 fresh cases being reported today. The number of recovered patients is 57,732, with the number of active cases being 21,516. Adding to the death toll of 316 were 10 more deaths reported today, in Kerala.