The last week ended with the conclusion of the assembly polls in Bihar. The third phase had given a lesson to some extent to the NDA alliance when people were expressing their anger directed towards the CM by throwing shoes at him. The campaigning in the state-polls had seen a wide spectrum of events from songs to display of protests. Though the results are set to be declared tomorrow, the initial exit polls have started arriving which point out an advantage for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.

The state’s CM had tried to play an emotional tune by stating that this was his last election. But, that seems to be not helping the BJP- JD(U) alliance who are likely losing the race to the RJD-led alliance. In especially the third phase, the NDA is in tepid waters in the electoral battle in the places under the Seemanchal region like the Araria, Katihar, Purnia, and Kishanganj. The situation is tough for the BJP-JD(U)-led alliance in places in Kosi region like Madhepura, Supaul, and Saharsa. Even in places in Mithila region like Madhubani and Darbhanga the fight is looking tough for the BJP alliance even after the rally by the PM. Places in Tirhut like the Sitamarhi and Muzaffarpur look set to test the mettle of BJP- JD(U) combine in the third phase. The issues faced by women and youth could be a major factor in the shift of votes towards the Mahagathbandhan.

In the Seemanchal region, the RJD and parties like AIMIM have clear advantages. Some poll pundits have opined that AIMIM of Owaisi can cut out some seats from the expected seat tally of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. Given that the region has a strong presence of Muslims which is a common vote-bank for the AIMIM and the RJD, which banks largely on Muslim-Yadav support, this region can prove to be a tough battleground for BJP. A Patna-based journalist disclosed that Owaisi’s bid to create a shriller Muslim discourse with attempts to woo specifically the Mahadalits to create a social coalition of the “downtrodden” is not working here.

If AIMIM wins seats in the region, where it has fielded 19 candidates, it will not be overselling to say that, they can come in alliance or provide external support to the Mahagathbandhan to keep the BJP-JD(U) out of the total needed tally in the assembly. Seemanchal can hence be very crucial for the Mahagathbandhan. This region has a unique demography, as it has 47% Muslim population against the statewide proportion of 17% which makes it to be identified as peculiar in its political behavior. In Kishanganj, the Muslim comprise 70% of the population while they comprise 43% in Katihar. This was one of the reasons that prior to the third phase of the Bihar polls, the CM was harping that nobody would be expelled under the new and contentious Citizenship Amendment Act.

In the Kosi belt, it is expected that Bijendra Prasad Yadav from Supaul and Narendra Narayan Yadav (from Alamganj) of JD(U) would retain their respective seats in the NDA alliance. In the Saharsa seat, the former MP and wife of incarcerated former MP Anand Mohan, Lovely Mohan is a contender on RJD ticket. Longtime socialist leader Sharad Yadav’s daughter Suhasini Raj is contending on INC ticket from the Bihariganj seat in Madhepura. This has led her father to come in support of INC after his daughter joined the party. The left party CPI(ML) under the Mahagathbandhan is performing well in terms of the anti-incumbency sentiments.  The party has also stressed that the efforts by the BJP to paint a picture of fear about the CPI(ML) would not work in Bihar after the disastrous handling of the economy, the pandemic, and the migrant workers’ issues.  CPI(ML) is much smaller than parties like RJD, BJP, JD(U), or even the Congress or LJP in terms of resources. But, it has one of the strongest cadres in Bihar. Observers state that the huge crowds in Mahagathbandhan rallies were not only due to the RJD but also the CPI(ML).

Tomorrow, November 10, a total of 3755 candidates in the state polls would get to know their outcome over the 243 assembly seats contested. Out of these, 38 seats are reserved for SCs , and two are reserved for STs. The ECI has elaborated that there would 55 counting centres in 414 counting halls over 38 districts in Bihar. Under the COID19-induced rules, there would be no more than 7 counting tables in each counting hall to maintain the social distancing. The state Chief electoral officer has stated that there would be three-layered security setup for the strong rooms where the EVMs would be housed. The inner layer is being guarded by the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), and then in the second layer would be the Bihar Military Police (BMP). The final layer would have the district police. Outside the counting centres, display screens are being set up and two tents being erected at each counting centre for journalists and the security personnel.