India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday issued a forecast indicating the possible development of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea around May 16.

This will be the first cyclonic storm of 2021 to form in the North Indian Ocean region, if realized. It will acquire the name Cyclone Tauktae, given by Myanmar. Ocean conditions in this month are rife for cyclogenesis in this region.

The Meteorological Department has issued a warning of light to moderate rainfall over Lakshadweep, Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu from Thursday onward lasting till May 16. Rainfall will mainly be associated with the likely formation of a low-pressure system and its intensification.

The current location of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in favour of causing enhanced rainfall over the Arabian Sea, expected to last for a week.

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The latest press statement issued by the IMD on Tuesday, stated,”A low pressure area is very likely to form over the southeast Arabian Sea on the morning of May 14. It is likely to move north-northwestwards across this region adjoining Lakshadweep. It may intensify into a cyclonic storm around May 16.”

Rough sea conditions are expected to develop starting Thursday, in view of which, fishermen from these coastal states have been warned against venturing into the sea from Friday onward. Those out in the sea have been urged to return to safety by Wednesday night.

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Sea conditions, mainly along the Comorin area and east-central Arabian Sea, will be very rough to high between May 14 and 16. A similar rough sea is also expected along the coasts of Goa and Maharashtra on May 15.  Lakshadweep could experience a tidal wave of about 1m above the astronomical tide during the weekend, with a possibility of inundating the low-lying areas.