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Need for Anti-drone technology deployment is more urgent than ever

Anti-drone Smash 2000

Indian security establishment could soon make a decision on the deployment of anti-drone technology at military installations across the country. Armed forces are reportedly carrying out drills with the Israeli anti-drone SMASH 2000 Plus systems. This Israeli anti-drone system may be procured on an immediate basis. The development on upping the ante in national security comes in the wake of a first-of-its-kind drone attack in the country earlier on Sunday. At Jammu airport after 1:30 am on Sunday, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used to drop two bombs at an Indian Air Force (IAF) station. The twin low-intensity blasts damaged a building and injured two IAF personnel. After Sunday’s low-intensity blasts at Jammu airport, anti-drone technology climbs up the priority-list for Indian security establishment.

Also See: Cyber warfare from China-part-II

Central agencies said that after the August 5, 2019 abrogation of Article 370, over 300 drones and unidentified flying objects have been sighted along the sensitive border with Pakistan. Article 370 that granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir has always been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan, which has used the issue to fuel its proxy war in J&K.  Intelligence sources warned that currently the armed forces are not suitably equipped with technology to tackle these new lethal sky-floaters.

It was also reported that suspected drone activity was also seen late last night, in Kunjwani in the Ratnuchak area of Jammu. This disclosure was made on Tuesday morning by people familiar with the development.

Also See: Cyber warfare from China-part-I

The MHA has handed over the investigation of the Jammu drone attack case to the National Investigation Agency (NIA).

Smash 2000 plus system

The Israeli anti-drone SMASH 2000 Plus systems are fitted on a rifle and can target drones flying at high speeds, as per defence sources. Indian Navy has already started the process of procuring these defence systems. Indian Army and the Indian Air Force might take these up soon as well. As they fly at low altitudes, drones are often difficult to catch on the radar. In such cases, security personnel can only rely on a manual approach in spotting these drones and bringing them down when they get close.

Israeli-made SMASH 2000 Plus anti-drone systems can be retrofitted onto an AK-47 or any other rifle of a similar make. This device can detect drones and other small flying objects. People in the know stated that an important operational advantage of the SMASH 2000 plus system is that it can be used both during daylight and nigh-time. The defence ministry was already mulling over the installation of these anti-drone systems at major military stations. Now, after the Jammu attack, the government can make a decision soon in this regard. To fasten the acquiring of the systems, the ministry has separately empowered army chiefs to procure items of immediate need.

After the Jammu incident, the bomb disposal squad of the National Security Guard and a National Investigation Agency team were sent to the Indian Air Force station in Jammu. To carry out the twin blasts, low-flying drones were used in the early hours on Sunday to drop two IEDs, in a first-of-its-kind attack on a defence establishment.

Also Read: Low-intensity twin-blasts rocked Jammu airport; two injured

It was suggested that the drones were likely flown from across the international border with Pakistan but further investigation will ascertain the exact flight path and outfits behind it.

Agencies reported increased drone activity by Pakistan in June. At least three drone strikes have been thwarted, as per central agencies. One drone went back to Pakistan, but arms were recovered by the border security forces. Over the months, intelligence reports suggested that Pakistan might be sending drones across its border with India. The purpose for such drones were either to drop weapons or communication equipment that would help the ISI in picking up intelligence or tracking movement of Indian forces. 

Also Read: Twelve years of 26/11: a tale of non-state entities in a hostile neighbour, domestic lacunae and a ‘honeybee’

It is worthwhile to note that in June 2016, mastermind of “Mumbai 26/11 attack” Hafiz Mohammad Saeed had stated that India would face dire consequences if it continues to show aggression against Pakistan and let US aircraft to use its airbase. Hafiz Saeed, chief of Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) had also threatened that Pakistan would not hesitate to use nuclear bombs or drones carrying nuclear warheads if India attacks.  He had infamously stated that if India uses drones, it must remember that Pakistan has enough drones for entire India. In 2018, Hafiz Saeed has said that America cannot drone strike his outfit’s headquarters in Lahore.

Saeed’s organizations with dubious records like JuD and Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF) have been banned from collecting donations. JuD is known for contemplating on use of drone technology to attack any target nation.

Hence, acquiring of the anti-drone systems would be operationally prudent with threats looming near the J&K border, fuelled by Pakistan-based extremists and terror groups.

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Growing proximity of Israel and the Gulf States-from cultural angle to business deals

Growing proximity of Israel and the Gulf States

After the signing of the Abraham Accords, the Gulf States are gradually espousing Israel and especially the Hebrew language. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have signed deals of rapprochement with Israel as a result of the deal brokered by US led by Trump. On the streets of Dubai, Shalom can be commonly heard these days. Demand for the lessons of Hebrew language is picking up in the Gulf States.

With ties opening up with Israel, the demand of relevant communication skills is growing among the young people in Gulf States. Also, apart from this, the people in the Gulf States especially in the cities like Dubai, who have connections and friends across the world are keen to learn something which is not native of the region. Apart from the diplomatic steps and efforts taken by US, Israel and the Gulf States, there were developments within the Emirates which provided the ground for the integration of Israeli culture. For example, Emirates had officially declared the year of 2019 as the Year of Tolerance, which led some of the Jewish expats to come out in the open with plans to build a synagogue.

Also Read: Israel UAE sign deal to begin diplomatic ties- what does it mean for Palestine

As a consequence of the Abraham Accords, many Israeli tourists and businessmen have been flocking Dubai. Hence, many hotels have adopted to the needs of such tourists, offering Kosher meals, including pre-Shabbat cuisine.

Director Josh Samet of Educational Hebrew Institute (EHI) in Dubai and Abu Dhabi stated with surprise that the demand for Hebrew courses has gone off the charts.

In a parallel development in the same Gulf-Israeli context, a former Israeli spy, who had served for 30 years, recently received a WhatsApp call from Saudi-Arabia, which surprised him. That was an affirmation of the deepening ties between Israel and the Gulf states. The intelligence officer had founded a company which sifts through the Social Media posts for terrorism threats, with law enforcement agencies in the EU, US and India as its main clients. Now, that company is being looked upon by Saudis so that it can assist with the counterterrorism policies.

Also Read: The plausible link between Abraham accords and the Afghanistan peace process

Israel is currently working on the development of a defence alliance with Saudi Arabia, UAE & Bahrain. It has also signed deals with UAE, the second-largest economy in the Middle-East after Saudi Arabia. The deals cover various sectors like health, agriculture, tourism, water resources, with an estimate pegging the bilateral trade between Israel & UAE to increase from $300000 to $500 million a year. Israel has also agreed to improve its economic ties with Egypt.

Saudi’s crown prince Prince Mohamed bin Salman, as reports suggest, is getting ready to meet the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. The Abraham Accords is allowing Saudis to increase their influence in the Middle-East. The proximity between Israel and the Saudis is a geopolitical countering towards the increasing influence and threats from Iran, which is using proxies like Houthis in Yemen.

After the Nuclear deal (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, together led by US, that allowed Iran to have it’s coffers filled up. That resulted in the downstream funding of Iran’s militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. That posed a threat to Iran’s Sunni rivals, the Gulf states. This situation reversed after the US withdrew from the Nuclear deal. This along with the Abraham accords provided Gulf states enough ground to expand their influence.

Moreover, the Gulf States like Saudi are learning that less involvement of the US in the Middle-East necessitates a closer alignment with Israel.

All these developments point out that Israel is gradually becoming the new centre of soft-power in the Middle-East.

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Israel UAE sign deal to begin diplomatic ties- what does it mean for Palestine

Diplomatic relations began between Israel and the United Arab Emirates in a groundbreaking deal. Israel had been planning to annex parts of West banks. As of now, the plans have been stalled due to the deal which Israel signed with United Arab Emirates. The landmark deal initiating diplomatic ties between the two countries has been brokered by the US administration. This Israel-UAE accord has been called as the Abraham accords by officials working in the Israel, UAE and US administration.

This deal makes the United Arab Emirates the third of the twenty-two Arab countries and the first Gulf Arab state to have active diplomatic relations with Israel.  Prior to this, Israel had signed Peace treaty with Egypt in 1979 (which started their diplomatic ties) as a result of the Camp David Accord of 1978 settling the Yom Kippur War. In 1994, Israel had started diplomatic relations with Jordan after signing the Israeli-Jordan Peace treaty. Israeli-UAE Abraham accord would be followed by deals between the two countries in the areas of security, flights, energy, telecommunication, healthcare and tourism.

After signing the treaty with UAE, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a televised statement, that this brings in hope that there would be a new era of peace between the Israel and the Arab world. He also added that Israel hopes that more Arab nations would come into this circle of diplomatic friendship with Israel. Netanyahu further added that the plans to capture parts of West bank has been put on a temporary hold, meaning that the military action at the West Bank cannot be totally neglected on a long-term basis. That this has been brokered by the United States becomes crucial for the administration led by Mr. Trump before the November elections, since the troops withdrawal from Afghanistan is still not considered as complete by some foreign policy observers. Influence of the USA in the fractious middle east politics is well known since the end of the second World War, times of Truman doctrine and specifically during the Nixon Kissinger era.

This deal could be presented by the UAE as its transformation into a more tolerant state with respect to the Jewish state. But it puts the Palestinians into a catch 22 situation. On one hand, this deal muzzles the Israeli territorial ambition in West bank for the moment, on the other hand it normalizes the relation between the hostile Israel and UAE which can delay the process of Palestine’s establishment as an independent state. Gaza strip is controlled by the Sunni militant group Hamas. This group has stated that the deal by the Emiratis has been a stab in the back for them.

Joe Biden, former US vice president and currently presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has hailed the deal as a welcome move. He stressed that if he comes to office as the POTUS, then he would make sure that Israeli annexation of West Bank does not happen as that would deal a body blow to the peace process in the volatile region. Joe Biden strongly believes in the two-state solution in the issue between Israel and Palestine which has different meanings for the Israelis and the Arabs. For Israel, the issue of their sovereignty over Samaria and Judea in the West Bank region is still a bone of contention with Palestinians. The elusive peace between Israel and Palestine will be a long-drawn process and a complicated one requiring intervention from world powers like the USA.

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What can India learn from the Tenth man principle

Tenth man principle

Israel has always had unfavorable relations with its neighbors. Right from the Biblical time of Exodus to their exile in Babylon, from the Suez crisis of late 1950s to the Six day war in 1967, Israelites have been on tenterhooks with their neighbors. They were happy that they got their bite off Egyptian pride in the occupation of Sinai. But the Yom Kippur war was going to change all that. That was the war which forced Israel to think not in terms of preset narratives but in a counterintuitive way.

When hostilities ended, Agranat commission was set up. Its primary motive was to find out the reasons of failure of IDF and Mossad to predict the attacks of the Syrian forces and Egyptian army on Golan Heights and the Bar Lev line respectively. The commission examined the causes of the unpredictability of the War. It also suggested certain protocols and SOPs for correct prediction of the future threats to the national security. The idea of the Tenth Man was born out of this commission. The war technically concluded with the Camp David Accords but the lessons from the commission were being incorporated in silence by Israel away from global attention. Golda Meir, the then PM of Israel, having recently steered the country out of the Munich tragedy, was determined to put a national security system in place which would be flawless.

Hence, a contrarian notion of Security was placed in the paradigm of IDF and Israeli Intelligence services especially in matters related to threat perception, detection and counterintelligence. If nine people came to the same conclusion about a scenario, then it became the duty of the tenth man to dig into the contrary opinions.

The tenth man must investigate based on the assumption that the other nine are wrong. If the nine have different but inherently same notional idea of any situation, then the tenth man will examine a totally different possibility. This approach itself filters out any scope of miscalculation in terms of threats to National security.

This provides a perfect learning outcome for India. For this a strong political will for the right necessary action and acceptance of past failures are required. But, we still have not made public the Henderson Brooks-Bhagat report of the 1962 war. (This report was prepared by Lt. Gen. Henderson Brooks and Brigadier General Premindra Singh Bhagat.) It is still dubious at best to guess, whether we have been able to fill the security gaps exposed in 26/11 or Gurdaspur, Pathankot or Uri attacks.

It becomes all the more relevant in the context of the current global pandemic. What no other adversary could do since WWII, a virus did that to an Aircraft carrier strike group of the Superpower-leader of the free world. This proves that pandemic scenarios can never be put on the losing side of a zero-sum game in the national security equation. The tenth man principle can help countries to anticipate the course of action in such scenarios with unpredictable outcomes.

It behooves anyone in the security structure of India to consider the depth and reach of the fifth column planted by hostile states, given the recent expositions of the links in the 2001 parliament attack. To identify the intentions of such hostile elements, tenth man principle can be of great help. An important criterion for success of the Tenth man idea is to promote different points of view of any issue or problem. A major setback with the current situation in India is that multiple opinions are discouraged at best. It makes examining an issue through a diametrically opposite assumption and opinion farfetched and impossible.

Friendship with countries like Israel should not be wasted over rabble-rousing or one-man showmanship; instead, it should be used for learning, internalizing, and implementing some principles like “Tenth man” for the benefit of India.