Posted on

Second Notice issued to Mamata Banerjee by election commission of India over comments on security forces

A second notice in as many days has been issued to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee by the Election Commission of India. The notice asked her to explain her comments on the central security forces, which had violated the model code of conduct.

Also See: West Bengal 2021: Battleground for BJP and TMC

The first-three of the total eight phases of West Bengal’s assembly elections are now over and the electorate in 91 constituencies have already cast their votes. A total of 44 seats will go to polls on April 10 for the fourth phase.

Also See: What are the problem areas of TMC and the chances of BJP in this election season in West Bengal

The Trinamool Congress supremo had allegedly asked people to “gherao” central security forces at an election rally. The forces have been deployed by the poll panel in the state to ensure free and fair elections, with serious allegations and complaints levelled against them including that of sexual assault. The fourth of the eight phases of polling in the state will be held on April 10.

Also see: Trilateral fight in West Bengal election 2021

The CM has been asked by the Election Commission to send her reply by 11 am on April 10.

Speeches made by the West Bengal Chief Minister on March 28 and April 7 were cited by the Election Commission of India.

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

The earlier notice was sent to Mamata regarding her comment over split in Muslim vote.

In this regard, it is also worthwhile to note that a complaint was submitted to the Election commission by Derek O’Brien regarding a sexual assault carried out on a minor girl by a CRPF jawan in Tarakeshwar, on which the ECI has still not responded to.

Vote counting for the West Bengal assembly election will be held along with those for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry on May 02.

Posted on

Tendency to evade prediction & difference in voting for LS polls and assembly elections may surprise poll-pundits

Bengal Election

This year’s assembly election in West Bengal is a high pitched battle between TMC, which is looking forward to third term and the saffron camp getting desperate to make inroads into the state. TMC led by Mamata Banerjee gets uncomfortable on questions related to accountability, the continuance of Syndicate mafia, intra-party factionalism, promises of reversing the deindustrialization under Left front & exclusive decision making among Ms Banerjee, Abhishek Banerjee and poll-strategist Prashant Kishor. The last factor was a dominant reason for many turncoats in the party to jump-boat to BJP using the window of opportunity of securing one’s political future. The BJP gets piqued and choked up on questions related to its rhetoric which fuels communalism, religious polarization, zero works in improving the national economic situation, turning a literal blind eye to Bengal during Amphan and Corona crises, clamping down on voices of dissent and differences, which is central to the social-psychology of West Bengal.

Also See: West Bengal 2021: Battleground for BJP and TMC

Poll-related violence in Nandigram

At the centre of the second phase of the high-pitched and to some extent personal battles of the West Bengal election, was the assembly seat of Nandigram, which saw spats of violence. At this seat, CM Banerjee is facing her former party-leader & her protégé, Suvendu Adhikari. The place failed to shrug off violence despite adoption of unprecedented measures by the Election Commission of India to maintain peace for a free and fair election.
Charges and counter-charges of intimidation of voters, rigging were volleyed by both BJP and TMC at each other. Incidents of polling agents being driven out & assault on voters and journalists were also exchanged throughout the day of the second-phase poll.

Also See: What are the problem areas of TMC and the chances of BJP in this election season in West Bengal

At Boyal, the day of second-phase poll saw supporters of both the parties clash over charges of rigging. As early as 8am, both Trinamool congress and BJP alleged that their polling agents were not being allowed to sit inside several several polling stations. Political agents were driven away multiple times at Boyal-I and Boyal-II. Trinamool alleged that their polling agents from as many as 80 booths had been driven out. Forces were mobilized to reduce the figure to 8.

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

In this regard, TMC lodged complaints with the Election Commission of India.  BJP complained that in as many as 122 booths, their agents had been driven out. Suvendu Adhikari rushed to Patrapara, where a BJP-supporter Uday Shankar Dobe committed suicide by hanging himself. His daughter Sabita alleged that her father was intimidated by TMC-supporters.  At Khadambari in Nandigram block I, some Trinamool supporters alleged that BJP was distributing puffed rice to allure voters. Pradip Mandal, a local panchayat official, stated that the saffron camp was doing this, triggering chaos, given the sure-shot probability that BJP would lose the election and its utter desperation.

Also see: Trilateral fight in West Bengal election 2021

At Nandigram, West Bengal Chief Minister & TMC supremo-Mamata Banerjee had to be rescued by the Central paramilitary forces after having to stay confined for more than two hours at a polling booth amid an extremely tense face-off between BJP and Trinamool Congress supporters. The CM told the governor that the situation was a failure of the Election Commission, which was in charge of the law and order. But instead of responding to the situation, Governor Dhankar, who has shown his orientation towards the saffron camp time and agains, simply tweeted.

Also See: What do the manifestos promise as election begins in West Bengal

The wheelchair-bound Chief Minister added, “Anything might happen at any moment. There is total breakdown of law and order.” She also added that she was escorted out by the security forces, who managed to bring the situation under control after long-drawn negotiations with the villagers. Sitting outside the polling site, she wrote a complaint to Election commission, which might be the first instance of its kind in independent India.

Outside the polling station, the security forces were caught on camera shuttling between the two slogan-shouting groups who faced each other across a field, trying to broker peace.

Also Read: Loss of BJP in Bengal would send a message of assurance across the nation & Mamata Banerjee will win the third term

Voter-turnout

Over 83.95 percent voter turnout was recorded till 6 PM with the highest voting in Bankura and the lowest in Paschim Medinipur. Nandigram, where chief minister Mamata Banerjee is contesting against Suvendu Adhikari, recorded 80.79 percent turnout. In total, 43 Ballot Units and CUs each were replaced following glitches across the state. A total of 192 VVPATs were replaced during polling of the second-phase.

Prominent among the incidents of violence was the case where stones were thrown at cavalcade of Suvendu Adhikari. However, it missed and hit media car instead. The incident took place in Takapura area of Nandigram. Also, a vehicle of media personnel was attacked near booth number 170 in Kamalpur, Nandigram. Suvendu Adhikari claimed that the TMC cadres were behind the attack.

Also Read: West Bengal is a tough battlefield for BJP-an overview from historical, cultural & economic standpoints

Past trends’ analysis

The long-term trends of Assembly elections in West Bengal have shown that the incumbent government does return to power if it has performed reasonably well, has a credible mass leader and a believable political narrative. Those who do psephology know that the opinion polls are relatively weaker than the exit polls. In both opinion and exit polls, the most challenging task for pollsters is to accurately project seats rather than find out the probability of parties getting the exact percentage of votes.

In the recent past, political psephology has evolved & developed as a specialized field in political science to correct past mistakes of analyzing and calculating voting behaviour.  Methods of political psephology are derivatives of empirical political science and rational choice theory, rooted in mainstream Western social sciences. However, in the last few years, it has been noticed that the election results in the West and South Asian countries have surprised psephologists. In West Bengal, too, this has happened before, not once but twice. It was in 2001 & 2016 assembly elections.

Long-term trends of assembly elections in West Bengal show that the BJP gets fewer votes in percentage terms compared to parliament elections. A look at some figures of the past 12 years, when the independent strength of the Left has been dwindling provides some necessary insights. BJP got 6.14 percent votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But in the 2011 Vidhan Sabha elections, it got only 4.06 percent votes. In the 2014 elections, it shot up to 17.02 percent votes in the wake of a pro-Modi and an anti-Congress wave in the Lok Sabha election. The vote share of BJP came down to 10.28 percent in the 2016 Vidhan Sabha elections. In 2019, the party surprised many pollsters and political pundits when its vote share touched 40.25 percent.
In Bengal, there was no alliance between the Left and the Congress. As a result, the anti-Trinamool vote got consolidated behind the BJP. Finally, the election was grounded on the RSS’s core issues, and emotions, centred on the Ram Mandir, CAA-NRC, abrogation of Article 370, and issues of national security and terrorism following the Pulwama attack were whipped up.

The state’s Opposition leader had said during the 2016 assembly elections that the Left-Congress alliance would get 200 seats. It ended up with just 77. In the run-up to the current elections, the Union home minister of India has said that the BJP will win 200 seats. This has been contested by the poll-strategist & I-PAC chief-Prashant Kishor, who has asserted that the BJP will not touch even 100 seats.

On an overall basis, the state has shown differences in voting behaviour for the LS polls and assembly election and this assembly election might also throw in surprising facets about the political choices and behavioural choices during elections.

Posted on

Phase-II election-Convoy of Suvendu Adhikari attacked in Nandigram & tense situation in Debra-37.42% turnout in Nandigram

SA bengal

Voting for the second phase of the West Bengal election began on April 01. Sporadic cases of violence were reported from various places in the phase-II voting.

Convoy of Suvendu Adhikari was attacked in Nandigram by unidentified people with stones. As security cover for the candidate was cautious, Adhikari was reportedly safe after the attack, but the cars behind Adhikari’s entourage carrying media personnel had to break away from the route.

In a parallel development, in Debra, after BJP’s Mandal President of the region, Mohan Singh, was detained by the police ruckus took place near a polling booth. BJP workers alleged that police were not allowing BJP election agent access inside the polling booth, whereas locals asserted that nobody wants violence and that this disturbance was brought by BJP.

Also See: West Bengal 2021: Battleground for BJP and TMC

In Bankura, TMC candidate Sayantika Banerjee alleged that two EVMs were dysfunctional and that most of the voters, who were her trusted voter-base had to return homes. She alleged that it was a conspiracy by the BJP to impact the voting in the region. She also added that BJP is trying to use Bankura heat to discourage voters through such issues of EVM, alluding to the influence of saffron party over the Election Commission of India.

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

In pockets of Purba Medinipur, some roads were blocked with burning tyres by Left-front party workers. In these regions and places of Paschim Medinipur, Amphan durniti (misgovernance) was used in the campaign by BJP, to allure voters.

Also see: Trilateral fight in West Bengal election 2021

The voter turnout in Nandigram till now has been reported at 37.42 % and the current overall turnout for the phase-II election is at 34%.

Election in West Bengal is scheduled to be held in 8 phases from March 27 to April, 29 and the vote counting will take place on May, 02.

Posted on

Shobha Majumdar-a BJP worker’ 80 yr old mother passes away-was allegedly assaulted by TMC cadres

In Nimta, West Bengal, an 80-year-old woman was allegedly attacked by TMC cadres in February. She passed away Monday morning four days after being released from hospital, sources revealed. The deceased woman was Shobha Majumdar, mother of BJP worker Gopal Majumdar. On February 27, Shobha was assaulted by three TMC workers. An FIR was also registered in this regard.

This incident which led to the death of the 80 year old mother of the BJP worker shows the spectre of political violence in the state.

The state BJP leadership has questioned the state’s ruling party, TMC, pointing specifically to Mamata Banerjee with regards to the death. The BJP leadership asked whether Shobha was not the daughter of Bengal. The saffron camp has demanded strict punishment against the perpetrators of the attack which resulted in the death.

The BJP IT-cell in-charge for Bengal election, Amit Malviya commented on the death of Shobha stating, “ TMC’s politics of violence has bruised the Bengal’s soul.”

Posted on

Button pressed for TMC, VVPAT slip showing BJP, at Kanthi

In a polling station at Kanthi (Contai, Purba Medinipur district) West Bengal, a voter complained that after he pressed the button and voted for TMC, the VVPAT gave the slip denoting the vote for BJP. That led to a ruckus at the site and protests against the Election Commission of India. There were also incidents in places like Bhagabanpur, Purba Medinipur, where the saffron camp tried to influence the SOPs of the election commission.

The first phase of election in West Bengal concluded on Saturday with few incidents of clashes and complaints regarding EVM machines from various polling-stations.

Also See: West Bengal 2021: Battleground for BJP and TMC

In the same context, the Election commission of India had changed its rules for the polling agents, which were framed in 2009. The 2009 rules mandated that the polling agent needs to be a voter under that polling station or an adjacent one. The new rules were released on March 26, a day prior to the beginning of the election in West Bengal, and relaxed the requirement underlined by the 2009 rules. A delegation of ten TMC leaders including Derek O’brien has rasied a notice with the  ECI to reverse the change in the rules.

Sources on the condition of anonymity stated that the rules were changed to provide leverage to BJP to get polling agents from across the state, when the saffron camp is having trouble getting polling agents.

All of this, especially the Kanthi incident, begs a question, ie is Election Commission of India playing stooge at the hands of the saffron camp?

Election in West Bengal is scheduled to be held in 8 phases from March 27 to April, 29 and the vote counting will take place on May, 02, 2021.

Posted on

Controversy erupts over a video file purportedly showing Mamata seeking help from BJP leader-suspicion of video-doctoring

mamta vs suvendu

The first phase of election in West Bengal for 30 assembly seats concluded today with few incidents of clashes and complaints regarding EVM machines from various polling-stations. A total of 191 candidates are in the fray for the first-phase.

In the heated theatre of the ongoing West Bengal election, a controversy erupted when a video clip was released by the BJP, in which CM Mamata Banerjee is seen cajoling a local leader from Nandigram to help her win the seat against her former protégé Suvendu Adhikari.

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

A BJP delegation, led by party general secretary and Bengal minder Kailash Vijayvargiya, met the state’s chief electoral officer and handed over the tape, claiming that Banerjee was using her official position to influence the outcome of the bitterly-contested high-pitched assembly poll.

Many people suspect that the video was doctored and that it was released to impact the voter sentiments on the very first day of polling. A source in Hooghly, on the condition of anonymity, asserted that the accent and the tone of the recorded speech make it clear that it was not Mamata’s speech.

The election in West Bengal is scheduled to be held in 8 phases from March 27 to April, 29 and the vote counting will take place on May, 02, 2021.

Posted on

End of the campaign for the first phase of Bengal election for 30 assembly seats

Bengal election

At 5 pm, yesterday (Thursday) the curtains came down on the high decibel campaign in 30 assembly seats in West Bengal where polls are scheduled in the first phase on March 27.

The campaign for the 30 seats saw leaders of BJP, which has emerged as the main opposition to the ruling party in the state Trinamool Congress, addressing poll rallies in Purulia, Jhargram, and Bankura districts.

In one of the rallies of BJP, state party president Dilip Ghosh had made an indecent comment on Mamata Banerjee about her injury and her wearing saree.

Also See: Battle for Bengal gets pithier as election days getting closer

The 30 seats on which the first phase of West Bengal elections would take place are spread across tribal-dominated (Jangalmahal) Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, Purba Medinipur (Part 1) and Paschim Medinipur (Part 1) districts which were once considered the citadel of the Left in the state.

Posted on

Deployment of police from BJP-ruled state in West Bengal-TMC submits letter to Election Commission of India

Election Commission of India

TMC has submitted a written letter with a complaint to the Chief electoral officer, West Bengal about the deployment of units of UP police ahead of the E.

Also See: Battle for Bengal gets pithier as election days getting closer

In its desperation to make serious inroads into West Bengal polity, BJP is possibly trying to arm-twist Election Commission of India to allow deployment of police units from states under its rule.

Also see: Trilateral fight in West Bengal election 2021

The letter from TMC said, “It has come to our notice that 30 companies of State Armed Police (S.A.P) from Uttar Pradesh has been directed to be deployed by the Election Commission for the ongoing General Election to the Assembly Elections of West Bengal. While we do not object to deployment of S.A.P from any non-BJP ruled states, however we strongly object to deployment of personnel of S.A.P from UP, since it is governed by Bharatiya Janata Party and their Chief Minister Shri Yogi Adityanath, is a star campaigner for BJP.”

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

“The above would heavily disturb the level playing field and impartiality of the election machinery and we suspect them to have a bias in favour of BJP,” the letter further said.

“We call upon the Election Commission to immediately stop such movement/deployment of S.A.P from UP and/or any other BJP ruled state to West Bengal,” it also added.

West Bengal has become a heated battleground between TMC and BJP with both the parties exchanging volleys of accusations against each other.

Also See: West Bengal 2021: Battleground for BJP and TMC

The schedule for the upcoming elections in India (four states and a UT) was announced on February, 26, 2021. In West Bengal, the election will be held in 8 phases from March 27 to April, 29 and the vote counting will take place on May, 02, 2021.

Posted on

Mamata’s 10-point manifesto covers free ration to student credit card

As the elections in India scheduled for 2021 are approaching nearer, West Bengal CM- Mamata Banerjee released the election manifesto of the party which she leads, i.e. AITC, the Trinamool Congress. The manifesto enlists 10 main promises or the 10 Angikar.

One of the prominent among the 10 promises is that of a credit card with a limit of Rs 10 lakh at 4 percent interest rate.  As part of promoting state government’s help in education, Mamata stated that the government would be the guarantor for the education. There is also the proposition of minimum monthly income guarantee for the women. The manifesto also speaks about provision of free ration to 16 million people, to be given at their doorsteps.

Also See: Battle for Bengal gets pithier as election days  are getting closer

In the manifesto, there are also the promises about providing five lakh jobs by making the state the fifth largest economy in the country. The state government is also planning to set up 10 lakh new MSMEs and about 2000 new big industrial units.  The manifesto of  TMC proposed a few days before the beginning of the state elections in India also speaks among others, about offering subsidized canteen facilities, doubling of the state-health expenditure and establishment of an university in Nandigram, the site of an important electoral fight between Mamata and her former protege Suvendu Adhikari.

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

Apart from the manifesto, CM & TMC supremo-Mamata Banerjee is rallying incessantly at various places. At one such rally, Mamata seating in a wheelchair scorned out at the centre for not allowing the state governments who are willing to pay, to dole out free vaccines. In that rally, she also asked the supporters of the former Left front government to vote for TMC and to not waste their votes.

Posted on

TMC goes all guns blazing for election- huge crowds at Jhalda and Balrampur rallies led by Mamata Banerjee-scanty crowd at Purulia rally of BJP

Jhalda rally

Huge ground-swelling crowds were seen at the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s meetings in Jhalda and Balrampur. After being attacked in Nandigram, Chief Minister held the first meeting at Jhalda for Baghmundi assembly constituency on Monday. In that meeting, the crowd had literally no space left empty. Lots of people were seen standing on the roof, on the sidewalk, listening to the CM’s speech. They stood for a long time even under the scorching-hot Sun. The enthusiasm of the TMC-activists in today’s meeting was eye-catching. After Jhalda, Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee held a meeting in Balrampur. The cheering from the crowd was so loud that many people stood in their places and tried to come nearer to the stage to listen to Mamata’s speech.

Also See: Battle for Bengal gets pithier as election days getting closer

Recently, Amit Shah had to cancel his rally at Jhargram over a technical reason, which was actually due to the poor attendance at the BJP rally organized at the place, as confirmed by local sources. The rally of Adityanath held at Purulia also witnessed barren or ‘next to nil’ participation with organizers shouting over mikes for the few people attending to stay back.

Also see: Trilateral fight in West Bengal election 2021

CM Banerjee held a meeting in support of Trinamool candidate Sushant Mahato of Baghmundi Assembly constituency at Jhalda Junior High School ground and then in support of Trinamool candidate Shantiram Mahato of Balrampur. This was the first public meeting of the Trinamool Supremo after being attacked in Nandigram. Although the public meeting had started at 1:30 pm afternoon, numerous processions had started arriving from 10 am onwards. Before the arrival of the Chief Minister, the meeting place was filled to the full capacity, upto the brim.

Also See: West Bengal 2021: Battleground for BJP and TMC

As soon as the Chief Minister’s helicopter appeared in the sky, the crowd greeted the Chief Minister by cheering, waving their hands, and clapping. Sitting in a wheelchair, she got off the helicopter. Seeing her, the activists started cheering “Didi, Didi”, resembling a loud uproar. Sitting in a wheelchair, the Chief Minister climbed the stage with a ramp.

A local resident at Jhalda, Ramakrishna Soren, 80, had arrived at the meeting place to meet the Chief Minister. Adding a rhetoric, Ramakrishna said, “We never thought about what Didi did for Jangalmahal. The list of developments is much longer. She did many things before we even asked for them. She came to us with a broken leg, and we cannot fight for her in our own village?”

Sarita Layek, Tapan Layek, and Sadhana Chopra among many others were listening to the speech of their Didi (CM Mamata Banerjee) standing under the smoldering Sun on the roof of the house next to the meeting place. They said, “Didi has brought development for everyone. She thinks for the poor. So we want Didi again for the good of the common people and the poor.”

Also See: Would West Bengal election really be a three-way fight after the defections?

On the same day, the Chief Minister held a public meeting in support of Shantiram Mahato at Balrampur. As there was no empty-place available in the filled-up meeting place, many people stood on the side Purulia-Barakar road and listened to the speech of the Trinamool Supremo. At the public meeting, all the students, youths, and women raised the slogan of ‘Khela hobe’. As soon as the Chief Minister got up on the stage in a wheelchair, the women & all the supporters greeted her with loud reverberating shouts. The meeting place of Bengal CM was buzzing and booming with the repetitions of the slogan- “Bangla nijer meyek chae” translating into “Bengal wants its own daughter”.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee declared at the public meeting in Jhalda that some parties (irrelevant) like AJSU were contesting from Baghmundi adding that Congress will possibly broker over a seat for the BJP. She further added, addressing the people hearing her at the rally, “You will not give that opportunity. Just show them the door outside. Do not waste the votes by voting for someone else.” She also said, “I have nominated Sushant Mahato in Baghmundi. Sushant is a good person.”  Even at the end of the meeting, thousands of workers and supporters present at the place chanted slogans alongwith Mamata.