China fails to push around the Indian army near the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which clearly shows that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ability to threaten anyone has reduced.
Gordon G Chang, a lawyer and commentator, in an opinion article for Newsweek, has written that the Chinese President has gambled his future with the failed high-profile invasions of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into many more areas of the LAC, the border between India and China.
Chinese Army’s failure at the LAC will have a sequel-reaction and will give Xi a justification to pick up the speed of replacing rivals in the armed forces with loyal elements.
Hence, Xi considers this as a motivation, who as chairman of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, is the leader of the PLA, to renew his bid to launch another offensive against Indian positions.
In early May, south of the LAC has been separated into three areas in Ladakh by the Chinese army. With the boundary badly delimited, Chinese forces have trespassed into Indian positions for years, especially after Xi was appointed the party’s general secretary in 2012. Cleo Paskal of the Washington based Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Newsweek that large-scale manoeuvres in Tibet were not preparations for such a move.
In June, Galwan Valley witnessed a fierce face-off between China and India. In the Ladakh Galwan standoff 20 Indian Soldiers were killed by the Chinese army in an intentional move and this collision was the first deadly confrontation between the two countries in 45 years.
According to Paskal, while the Chinese side is thought to have suffered 43 fatalities in the Galwan face-off, the number could actually go well beyond 60. For the first time in a half-century, India launched an offensive against China, late last month, taking back decisive points captured by Chinese recently. The offensive took the Chinese forces aback and they retreated.
Chang, a writer from a prominent news outlet said that China’s subsequent efforts to counter India have proved ineffective. For now, Indian troops are in control with the southernmost of the three areas of Ladakh, under its control, which was once under Chinese occupation.
India is not giving the invaders the opportunity to improve. Both sides have just accused the other of violating decades-old rules of engagement by firing warning shots. It appears, however, that the Chinese are the ones who need to be closer to the truth. India’s troops are displaying newfound boldness.
Cleo Paskal stated that the game has changed. He further added to Newsweek that the Indians are more aggressive or more aggressively defensive, but they are in fact bolder and better. As per Jayadeva Ranade, a former senior Indian intelligence official and now head of the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, Xi who has now faced a setback, now needs a victory and could force further collision in Ladakh. With the accelerated development of Indian forces and their high-state of readiness, Xi is not convinced of the success he needs, especially as India has brought its mechanised vehicles to Ladakh, as stressed by J. Ranade.
Chinese, in that conflict, could roll out joint mechanised warfare for which they have been preparing for 30 year as stated by Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Centre to Newsweek. PLA leaders are beginning to see little choice but to undertake offensive military actions to avoid becoming a victim of Xi’s internal terror as stated by Fisher. He further added that in 2020 Xi wants victories. As the PLA is judged to have reached requisite levels of strength by rearming and reorganization, Xi is increasingly willing to use the military as added by Fisher.
Xi has shown his skills at the political mobilisation of the army and can spend a huge amount on military equipment. He has also worked on his art of threatening other countries. However, the Chinese President has yet to show his military in a fight and that it is worth a damn. Chang stated that unfortunately, it looks like China’s leader, who had looked invincible, now has something to prove. As a result, Xi appears absolutely determined to make his point by launching another attempt to break India apart. Chang added that other countries will take cognisance of the fact that Chinese military is deficient and that will be costly for Xi.