Bengal may be heading gradually towards a health disaster due to the Covid19 pandemic by December. This would be mainly due to ‘startlingly low number of coronavirus confirmatory tests’ at a time when the disease has caused nearly 4000 new infections daily on an average in the state.
Some members in the GAB (global advisory committee) led by Nobel Laureate Economist Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee are worried about the sudden rise in the number of Covid cases and deaths. The GAB formed with eminent individuals has brought rich and broader perspectives from their international experience in the format of an advisory body. It has provided effective oversight and guidance to shape the health policy in the shadow of the COVID-19.
In Bengal at the end of March, GAB was formed by the state government for guidance to fight more effectively with the pandemic. This body which was given shape by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to get constructive measures based on expertise to combat the COVID crisis has already held 13 virtual meetings to discuss the status due to the ongoing pandemic. The team comprising of experts have now given some suggestions to West Bengal Government and its citizens to combat COVID-19. Senior experts in GAB have decided to tell the Mamta Banerjee government to ban the use of crackers and firework during KaliPuja (Diwali) festival in the state this year. This is because air pollution from burning crackers will surely complicate the COVID-19 pandemic which has not shown signs of subsiding.
Rajasthan government has already banned the sale and use of fireworks to obviate the dissemination of the corona-virus. Ashok Gehlot, Rajasthan-CM, had declared about the decision in a twitter message recently. The GAB members had held a virtual conference to discuss the issue and would submit a status report on Covid-19 situation in Bengal.
Dr. Sukumar Mukherjee (senior general medicine expert), a leading member of the GAB told, “There will be an unparalleled health disaster caused by covid pandemic by Nov- Dec in our state. We are concerned with the very low number of the Covid confirmatory tests in a situation when the infection rate has touched approximately 9% in our state, although the recovery figure is satisfying.” He also added that at least one lakh confirmatory tests are needed everyday to fight the pandemic effectively. More tests would lead to the detection of more COVID patients in the state that will give a clearer picture of the situation.
A cause of worry is that Bengal is recording nearly 43000 COVID tests on an average daily, while other states are targeting higher numbers of tests for effective detection of infections and containing the pandemic. Five factors like seasonal flu ahead of winter, firework during Diwali, the rerun of local trains, low tests, and political campaigning for the 2021 state polls may lead to a second wave of the pandemic. Such second waves have already hit France, UK, Germany, and other countries. A senior critical care specialist who attends 20 to 30 Covid patients per day stated that Bengal has sufficient infrastructure facility, and laboratories to organize at least 60,000 swab sample tests in a day but it is not being done.
The author is a member of Amity centre of Happiness.
