The assembly election is due in Uttar Pradesh in 2022. After West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, TN this year, UP will be among the most high-stake assembly elections in India in 2022. In this context, the political game of building of alliances has begun. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) party is zealously seeking a partner in alliance for the upcoming UP assembly polls. The party is planning to expand its footprint in UP, after its stints and electoral trials in Bihar and West Bengal. But, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) national president Mayawati was the first to spurn the AIMIM’s advances. In a tweet posted on June 27, she ruled out the possibility of any alliance with the AIMIM for next year’s state poll. Her tweet read, “That BSP and AIMIM will fight together in the next assembly elections; there is not a single truth in these reports. The BSP will fight the 2022 assembly elections alone”.

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Last year, AIMIM had contested the Bihar election with BSP, and won five seats. That has led to speculation on whether the two parties would fight the UP election too together. But, way earlier than any speculation can take any permanent shape of argument, Mayawati has announced her intention to stay away from Owaisi and his party in UP, unlike Bihar.

In a parallel development, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) too is keeping its distance from the AIMIM. This is despite Owaisi praising SP national president Akhilesh Yadav on several occasions. There are indications which point that like in West Bengal, Owaisi and his party will not find any major party to ally within UP.

Manish Hindvi is an associate professor in the department of Economics at the Vidyanta College in Lucknow. He said, “The Muslim vote bank in UP has been split between the SP and the BSP. Both the parties are shying away from showing extra love for the Muslim vote bank to take on the BJP in the state. Taking Owaisi along will increase the risk of a polarisation of the majority vote in the BJP’s favour. At the same time, by winning some seats, Owaisi will emerge as a new participant in the Muslim vote bank.”

The SP and the BSP had fought the general election together in 2019. The SP had fielded four and the BSP six Muslim candidates. Three each of the SP and BSP’s Muslim candidates went on to win. That gave the Lok Sabha six Muslim MPs from UP. It is worthwhile to note that in 2014 general election not a single Muslim candidate managed to win from UP.

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Muslims make up 19 percent of UP’s total population. Despite this, Muslim candidates won only under 10 percent of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats. Prof Hindvi said, “In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the SP and BSP alliance got a one-sided Muslim vote. In protest, the Hindu vote was polarised towards the BJP. [This time], the SP and the BSP are keeping their distance from AIMIM to prevent a repetition of this polarisation in the 2022 assembly election.”

Despite being spurned by SP and BSP, the AIMIM has started its preparations for the 2022 poll in UP. The party led by Owaisi has issued an MLA candidate application form, which includes a ‘loyalty contract’. As per this contract, the applicant is required to work honestly for the party. The loyalty contract also mandates that the applicant needs to campaign for the party even in the case of not getting a ticket to contest. Additionally, the applicants are also required to pay an application fee of Rs 10,000. AIMIM is preparing itself to contest in about 100 of UP’s 403 seats. Shaukat Ali is the president of the AIMIM’s state unit. He said, “The party has selected those hundred assembly seats in the state where the Muslim population is more than 20 percent. Apart from western UP, these seats are from Purvanchal, Rohilkhand and central UP.”

In the 2017 assembly election, the party had fielded 38 candidates. In that election, it got 2.46 percent of the vote. But, except for Saharanpur, 37 candidates forfeited their deposits in that election.

It can be observed that the AIMIM is currently isolated among the main opposition parties in UP. As a result, Asaduddin Owaisi will not be able to pose any threat to BJP as he was able to in Bihar.