The delta variant of coronavirus is a new concern for various countries around the world. USA is facing a fresh Covid19 trouble in the form of the Delta variant, especially on the Western Seaboard. New data shows that the Delta coronavirus variant is now the third-most common variant in California. This emphasizes the danger of the highly contagious strain to people who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19. Apart from California, the Delta variant is also spreading nationwide in USA. According to data released by the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), the delta variant makes up 14.5% of coronavirus cases in California analyzed so far in June. As per the CDPH data, the variant made up 4.7% of the cases in May, when it was the fourth-most identified variant in California.

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The Delta variant poses a greater chance of infection for unvaccinated people if they are exposed, as opined by experts. The variant was first identified in India. It may be twice as transmissible as the conventional coronavirus strains, and has been responsible for the rise in cases recently in India, the United Kingdom and elsewhere. People who are vaccinated are well protected against infection and illness from the Delta variant. One recent study has found out that the full two-dose course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant. The study also found that the two-dose Pfizer course is 96% protective against hospitalization.

There are a lot of debates on whether the Delta variant is more likely to cause more serious illness than other strains. But, there is no widespread scientific consensus on this angle of the new variant. The rise of Delta comes as California’s dominant strain of coronavirus, Alpha, may have peaked. The Alpha variant was first identified in the United Kingdom.

In the month of May, the Alpha variant made up 58.4% of coronavirus cases that were analyzed in California. In June, Alpha’s share fell. It now makes up 37.7% of analyzed cases and is still the top variant but with a much smaller proportion. The Gamma variant is also being seen more often in California. This variant was first identified in Brazil. The gamma variant represented 10.1% of analyzed cases in May. This variant now makes up 21.6% of analyzed cases in the state.  A data on antibodies has been released by California. It shows that the percentage of the tested population who have antibodies to the coronavirus a sign of immunity to Covid-19 is also increasing. U.S. government’s top infectious-disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has called the delta strain “currently the greatest threat in the U.S. to our attempt to eliminate Covid-19.”

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Lessons from UK’s response to Covid19

Apart from the domestic theatre, the U.S. has been keeping a close eye on the U.K. in terms of spread of Covid19 pandemic.

Experience of U.K with Covid-19 has often been a forerunner of things to come for other countries like the U.S. This aspect has proved particularly true when it comes to Covid variants which have hit the U.K. and then gone on to dominate globally. This trend was first seen with the alpha variant that emerged in southeast England late last year. That variant went on to become dominant across the world. Subsequently, a similar thing happened with the delta variant that originated in India. Though the variant originated in India, it was identified in the U.K. at a relatively early stage.

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Both alpha and delta strains have proved to be far more transmissible than the original coronavirus that first emerged in China in late 2019. World Health Organization now forecasts that the delta variant which has already spread to more than 80 countries  will become the dominant strain of the disease worldwide. U.K.’s experience with both strains at an earlier stage than many other countries is an important learning chance for other countries. The country’s case is now being seen as something of a “test case” for what could happen in the U.S. and other countries.

The first thing to note is how rapidly the delta variant spread across the U.K. The strain supplanted the alpha variant to become dominant in UK, in a relatively short amount of time. A government study showed that in mid-June delta variant was responsible for 90% of all infections. This happened despite the U.K.’s advanced vaccination rate.

In the U.S, cases attributed to the delta strain now make up around 20% of newly diagnosed cases. On the spread of the Delta variant, Dr. Anthony Fauci stated, “It just exploded in the U.K. It went from a minor variant to now more than 90% of the isolates in the U.K.” He gave the statement on a show on NBC TV. He said that the variant has a doubling time of about two weeks. He added, “So you would expect, just the doubling time, you know, in several weeks to a month or so it is going to be quite dominant that is the sobering news.”

The chief medical advisor to US president Joe Biden & the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases had already warned that delta appears to be “following the same pattern” as alpha. He said, “Similar to the situation in the U.K., the delta variant is currently the greatest threat in the U.S. to our attempt to eliminate Covid-19.”

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It is important to note that in the U.K., infections attributed to delta have spread rapidly among young people. It has also spread rapidly among the older who have not yet been vaccinated. NBC News reported on Sunday that in the U.S., there are concerns that delta could rapidly spread in parts of the South where vaccinations have stalled.

Other countries and delta variant

Apart from US, Australia is also dealing with the concerns around the delta variant. The city of Sydney was put under a two week lockdown over the weekend amid a growing outbreak of the strain. New South Wales is experiencing what the state’s premiere Gladys Berejiklian called as its scariest period since the pandemic first struck the country. The country widely considered a success story in containing the Covid19, is now dealing with a fearful period due to emergence of delta variant. With fewer than 30,300 cases and 910 deaths, the country was counted among the success stories in dealing with pandemic. But, as the restrictions began to be lifted and life started getting back to normal, cases of delta variant began to be reported. The unlocking and the low vaccination rates are suspected to cause the new cycle of worries over delta variant.

The Delta variant is still growing at a more rapid rate in US and around the world. This variant is thought to be the cause behind the debilitating second wave of Covid19 which hit India, where the pandemic response was bungled by the centre.

The vaccines’ effectiveness is supported by the results of outbreaks of the Delta variant elsewhere. On the outbreak of delta variant in Israel, Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health tweeted, “In Israel, an outbreak of the Delta variant is driven primarily by the unvaccinated. Some vaccinated people in Israel are still getting infected because no vaccine is 100%.” It has been observed that the infections that are breaking through the immunity provided by the vaccines are causing mild disease. Dr. Jha wrote, “What’s happening in Israel is vaccines working exactly as we all expected.”

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On Sunday, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a sweeping set of new coronavirus restrictions in the country. The restrictions include curfews and school closures, as the country faces another surge in cases that threatens to outpace two previous spikes. Ramaphosa said that the Delta variant, first discovered in India, appears to be driving South Africa’s new increase in reported cases. South Africa recorded more than 15,000 new coronavirus cases on Sunday. The data also included 122 Covid19-deaths, bringing its total number of fatalities to nearly 60,000.

On June 28, India’s Covid19 task force chief VK Paul said that it would be unfair to put a date on any Covid wave. He said that the behaviour of the virus is unpredictable and that a disciplined and effective pandemic response can help India to move away from any significant outbreak.

Stand of US administration on Covid19

US administration led by Joe Biden said on last Tuesday that it likely would not hit its goal of 70% of American adults receiving one vaccine shot or more by the Fourth of July. White House Covid19 czar Jeff Zients said that the US administration had met its 70% target for people aged 30 and older. He also added that the US government is on track to hit the target for those aged 27 and older by July Fourth. Zients said that U.S. officials were working with state and local leaders to reach younger people. He said, “We think it will take a few extra weeks to get to 70% of all adults with at least one shot with the 18- to 26-year-olds factored in.”

What next

Across the world and especially in India, a worry that is eating up the peaceful composure and self-imposed calm of the governments is the possibility of the next wave. The arrival of the next wave will be dependent on multitude of factors like implementation of Covid-appropriate behaviour, testing frequencies, containment strategies, preparation of hospital facilities, vaccination rates and most importantly the mutations. The main issue with the Delta variant is that the knowledge about the delta variant is in its early formative stages. It has been suggested that the new mutation might be responsible for faster transmissibility, excess severity of disease, evading the vaccines or adverse reaction to the vaccines. But, it is still early to say with conformity to what extent the delta and delta plus variants would be responsible for the next wave.

It looks like the virus is evolving faster that experts can design the vaccine to counter it, and that it is not going to let humanity breathe a sigh of relief in at least the coming months.