Elections 2019 are over and we witnessed a series of solutions given along with that cropping up new problems in the last five years. After this tumultuous campaigns witnessed in this election season where the dead have also not were left out of allegations and its counters.

Mera Vote has come out with an exit poll which has been garnered over several interviews taken in different phases of elections. We bring out solid reasons for NDA/BJP getting these many seats. However these are merely predications and nothing concrete can be chalked out unless the results are out on May 23rd 2019.

We present you our share of analysis in the simplest manner possible backed by a full proof equated analysis based on the defined parameters. We are presenting this analysis on the following assumptions

  • BJP alliance as of today and possible alliance with YSR in Andhra against TDP
  • Taking into account of pre-poll prediction in several states (including NE, Kerala, WB, and Odisha)
  • Performance of BJP in recent state elections.
  • Performance of BJP in 2014
  • Popularity of Mr. Modi
  • The popularity of work done by BJP in 5 years
  • Surgical Strikes and its Impact on the mango people

Overall India:

BJP is likely to win 263 seats. NDA will win around 342 seats.

The only factor behind the loss of BJP seats despite the rise in NE, West Bengal and Odisha is Alliance of SP-BSP in UP.

NDA is winning more because, BJP has won the first round of getting right alliance partners on board in South, Bihar, and Maharashtra.

FIVE HOT REGIONS

[supsystic-tables id=1]

The biggest difference in the North is UP where till now the only possible Mahagathban has happened. In Punjab too Congress seems to be doing well so BJP and SAD both losing seats. An overall loss of 33 seats for BJP alone and 36 for entire NDA. Other states seem to be in line with 2014 elections. Either Congress is weak in direct competition or No combined opposition.

[supsystic-tables id=2]

  • In West Rajasthan, BJP is in direct contest with Congress in MP, Rajasthan, and Gujarat.
  • Though it lost to Congress in 2 of these states, the 2019 results don’t seem to go that way.
  • Like in Rajasthan Gujjars and Rajputs are again in BJP fold. They were angry with, Raje as CM, so now that factor is over. Recently in Tonk (my district in Rajasthan), Modi came for a rally, and it saw unprecedented public. Tonk is a part of Tonk-SawaiMadhopur Parliamentary seat, and it is a Congress belt, but the rally indicated the wave in Rajasthan.
  • Similarly, in MP it was a close contest and we already seeing anti-COngress wave rising there. Gujarat will be behind Modi.
  • In Maharashtra, SS and BJP are back, together and expected results will come.
  • So a minor loss of seven seats to BJP and NDA from 2014 tally.

[supsystic-tables id=3]

  • This is where BJP will only rely on the Coalition. It is weak in every state apart from Karnataka. However, loss of TDP may be compensated by YSR.
  • In TN, BJP-AIADMK-DMDK- PMK alliance is set for a fight after in 2018 it seemed that TN would be a cakewalk for UPA (DMK -Congress). My prediction is based on recent alliances.
  • A historical seat in Kerala might be a possibility.

[supsystic-tables id=4]

One Area, where development cannot be ignored by any means.

  • BJP led government has done in 5 years that no government did in the last 70 years combined.
  • The BJP wave in Tripura and several alliances in other states will ensure that BJP increases the in the tally. In Assam, though they might not be able to sweep, they will still perform better than 2014.

[supsystic-tables id=5]

Why is this the hot region?

  • Mamta Banerjee, the most vocal opposition is from WB, and it’s in this region. After the recent Ishwar Chandra Vidya Sagar Episode,  It is also the region where BJP is likely to gain most.
  • In Bihar, without JDU, NDA has won 31 seats last time, now with JDU in its fold, and the living pollster (Paswan) in NDA, it might still increase its already high number to 36 (Yes). It might be a high number, but apart from RJD, there is no one likely to win in Bihar against this strong coalition.
  • Chattisgarh might go to Congress as most of the people are predicting.
  • WB and Odisha will see rise of BJP. The recent turn of events, BJP setting its goal and people from TMC and BJD joining BJP indicates the change in the air.